Dark Side of Valuation, The

Lýsing:The Definitive Guide to Valuing Hard-to-Value Companies: Fully Revised for Today’s...
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Dark Side of Valuation, The

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Rafbók til leigu í 90 daga. Útgáfa: 3

Efnisyfirlit

  • Cover Page
  • Title Page
  • Copyright Page
  • Dedication Page
  • Contents at a Glance
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • About the Author
  • Preface to the Third Edition
  • 1. The Dark Side of Valuation
    • Foundations of Value
      • Intrinsic Valuation
      • Determinants of Value
    • Valuation Across Time
      • Interest Rates
      • Market Risk Premiums
      • The Macro Environment
    • Valuation Across the Life Cycle
      • The Business Life Cycle
      • Early in the Life Cycle: Young Companies
      • The Growth Phase: Growth Companies
      • Maturity (A Mixed Blessing): Mature Firms
      • Winding Down: Dealing with Decline
    • Valuation Across the Business Spectrum
      • Financial Services Firms
      • Cyclical and Commodity Companies
      • Businesses with Intangible Assets
      • Emerging-Market Companies
      • Multibusiness and Global Companies
      • User-, Subscriber-, and Customer-Based Businesses
    • The Dark Side of Valuation Beckons
      • Input Phase
      • Valuation Phase
      • Post-Valuation Phase
    • Conclusion
  • Part I: Enlightenment: The Tools
    • 2. Intrinsic Valuation
      • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
        • The Essence of DCF Valuation
        • Equity Versus Firm Valuation
        • Inputs to a DCF Valuation
      • Variations on DCF Valuation
        • Certainty-Adjusted Cash Flow Models
        • Adjusted Present-Value Models
        • Excess-Return Models
      • What Do Intrinsic Valuation Models Tell Us?
      • Conclusion
    • 3. Probabilistic Valuation: Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees, and Simulations
      • Scenario Analysis
        • Best Case/Worst Case
        • Multiple Scenario Analysis
      • Decision Trees
        • Steps in Decision Tree Analysis
        • Estimation Issues
        • Risk-Adjusted Value and Decision Trees
      • Simulations
        • Steps in Simulation
        • Use in Decision Making
        • Simulations with Constraints
        • Issues with Using Simulations
        • Risk-Adjusted Value and Simulations
      • An Overall View of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches
        • Comparing the Approaches
        • A Complement to or Replacement for Risk-Adjusted Value
      • Conclusion
    • 4. Relative Valuation/Pricing
      • What Is Relative Valuation?
      • The Ubiquity of Relative Valuation
      • Reasons for Popularity and Potential Pitfalls
      • Standardized Values and Multiples
        • Earnings Multiples
        • Book Value or Replacement Value Multiples
        • Revenue Multiples
        • Sector-Specific Multiples
      • The Four Basic Steps of Using Multiples
        • Definitional Tests
        • Descriptive Tests
        • Analytical Tests
        • Application Tests
      • Reconciling Relative and Intrinsic Valuations
      • Conclusion
    • 5. Real Options Valuation
      • The Essence of Real Options
      • Real Options, Risk-Adjusted Value, and Probabilistic Assessments
      • Real Options Examples
        • The Option to Delay an Investment
        • The Option to Expand an Investment
        • The Option to Abandon an Investment
      • Caveats for Real Options
      • Conclusion
      • Appendix: Basics of Options and Option Pricing
        • Option Payoffs
        • Determinants of Option Value
        • Option Pricing Models
  • Part II: The Dark Side of Macro Inputs
    • 6. A Shaky Base: A “Risky” Risk-Free Rate
      • What Is a Risk-Free Asset?
      • Why Do Risk-Free Rates Matter?
      • Estimating a Risk-Free Rate
        • Requirements for an Investment to Be Risk-Free
        • The Purist Solution
        • A Practical Compromise
        • The Currency Effect
        • Real Versus Nominal Risk-Free Rates
      • Issues in Estimating Risk-Free Rates
        • There Are No Long-Term Traded Government Bonds
        • The Government Is Not Default-Free
        • The Risk-Free Rate Might Change Over Time
      • Closing Thoughts on Risk-Free Rates
      • Conclusion
      • Appendix 6.1
    • 7. Risky Ventures: Assessing the Price of Risk
      • Why Do Risk Premiums Matter?
      • What Are the Determinants of Risk Premiums?
        • Equity Risk Premiums
        • Default Spreads
      • Standard Approaches for Estimating Risk Premiums
        • Equity Risk Premiums
        • Default Spreads
        • Problem Scenarios
        • The Dark Side
        • The Light Side
        • The Dark Side
        • The Light Side
        • The Dark Side
        • The Light Side
      • Conclusion
      • Appendix 7.1
    • 8. Macro Matters: The Real Economy
      • Growth in the Real Economy
        • Why Does Real Economic Growth Matter?
        • Looking at History
        • The Dark Side
        • The Light Side
      • Expected Inflation
        • Why Does Expected Inflation Matter?
        • Looking at History
        • U.S. Inflation Rate Across Time
        • The Dark Side
        • The Light Side
      • Exchange Rates
        • Why Do Exchange Rates Matter?
        • Looking at History
        • The Dark Side
        • The Light Side
      • Conclusion
  • Part III: The Dark Side across the Life Cycle
    • 9. Baby Steps: Young and Start-Up Companies
      • Young Companies in the Economy
        • A Life Cycle View of Young Companies
        • Characteristics of Young Companies
      • Valuation Issues
        • Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
        • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
        • Real Options
      • Conclusion
    • 10. Shooting Stars: Valuing Growth Companies
      • Growth Companies
        • A Life Cycle View of Growth Companies
      • Characteristics of Growth Companies
      • Valuation Issues
        • Intrinsic Value
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • The Light Side of Valuation
        • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • Conclusion
    • 11. The Grown-Ups: Mature Companies
      • Mature Companies in the Economy
        • A Life Cycle View of Mature Companies
        • Characteristics of Mature Companies
      • Valuation Issues
        • Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • Growth in Mature Companies
        • Acquisition Inconsistencies
        • Unreal Restructuring
        • Debt and Value
      • Relative Valuation
      • The Light Side of Valuation
        • Growth and Acquisitions
        • Changing Management
        • The Expected Value of Control
      • Conclusion
    • 12. Winding Down: Declining Companies
      • Declining Companies in the Economy
        • A Life Cycle View of Declining Companies
        • Characteristics of Declining Companies
      • Valuation Issues
        • Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
        • From Operating Assets to Equity Value per Share
        • Relative Valuation
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • Autopilot Optimism
        • Discount Rate Contortions
        • Divestiture Follies
        • Book Capital
        • Dealing with Distress
        • Relative Valuation
      • The Light Side of Valuation
        • A Framework for Dealing with Decline and Distress
        • Irreversible Decline, Low Distress
        • Reversible Decline, Low Distress
        • Distress
      • Conclusion
  • Part IV: The Dark Side Across Company Types
    • 13. Ups and Downs: Cyclical and Commodity Companies
      • The Setting
        • Cyclical Companies
        • Commodity Companies
        • Characteristics
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • Base Year Fixation
        • The Macro Crystal Ball
        • Macro Point of View (POV) Valuations
        • Selective Normalization
        • False Stability
      • The Light Side of Valuation
        • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
        • The Real Options Argument for Undeveloped Reserves
      • Conclusion
    • 14. Mark to Market: Valuing Financial Services Companies
      • Financial Services Firms: The Big Picture
      • Characteristics of Financial Services Firms
        • The Regulatory Overlay
        • Differences in Accounting Rules
        • Debt and Equity
        • Estimating Cash Flows Is Difficult
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • Debt
        • Cash Flow Substitutes
        • Go with the Flow: Dividends
        • Trusting Book Value
        • Regulation and Risk
        • The Light Side of Valuation
        • Discounted Cash Flow Models
        • Asset-Based Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • Conclusion
    • 15. Invisible Investments: Valuing Firms with Intangible Assets
      • Firms with Intangible Assets
        • Intangible Assets in the Overall Economy
        • Characteristics of Firms with Intangible Assets
        • Valuation Consequences
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • Intrinsic Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • The Light Side of Valuation
        • Regaining Accounting Consistency
        • Dealing with Equity Options
        • Debt and Cash
        • The Compressed Life Cycle
      • Conclusion
    • 16. Volatility Rules: Emerging-Market Companies
      • The Role of Emerging-Market Companies
        • Emerging-Market Companies in the Global Economy
        • Why Do Emerging Economies Matter?
        • Characteristics of Emerging-Market Companies
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • Currency Mismatches
        • Miscounting and Double-Counting Country Risk
        • Risk Parameters
        • Incorporation Effect
        • Ignoring Missing Information
        • Corporate Governance Mood Swings
        • Post-Valuation Discounts
      • The Light Side of Valuation
        • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • Conclusion
    • 17. Going to Pieces: Disaggregated Value
      • Aggregation versus Disaggregation
      • Multinational Conglomerates
        • Role in the Economy
        • Characteristics
        • Valuation Issues
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • Intrinsic Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • The Light Side of Valuation
        • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
        • Relative Valuation
      • User/Subscriber/Customer Companies
        • The Rise of the User
        • Valuation Issues
        • The Dark Side of Valuation
        • The Light Side of Valuation
      • Conclusion
    • 18. The Cynic’s Corner: Value versus Price
      • Value versus Price
      • Investing versus Trading
        • The Value Game versus the Pricing Game
        • Investing versus Trading
        • The Dark Side
        • The Light Side
      • The Right Approach
        • Job Description
        • Cui Bono?
        • How Are You Judged?
        • The Dark Side
        • The Light Side
      • Categorizing Investments
        • Cash Flow–Generating Assets
        • Commodities
        • Currencies
        • Collectibles
      • The Questionable Investments
        • Gold (and Other Precious Metals)
        • Crypto Investments
        • Trophy Assets
      • Conclusion
  • Part V: The Finale
    • 19. The Jedi Way: Vanquishing the Dark Side
      • Enlightening Propositions
        • Proposition 1: Be Steadfast on Principles, Open to New Tools, and Flexible on Estimates
        • Proposition 2: Pay Heed to Markets, but Don’t Let Them Determine Your Valuations
        • Proposition 3: Risk Matters
        • Proposition 4: Growth Is Not Free and Is Not Always Value-Adding
        • Proposition 5: All Good Things Come to an End
        • Proposition 6: Watch Out for Truncation Risk
        • Proposition 7: Look at the Past, but Think About the Future
        • Proposition 8: Draw on the Law of Large Numbers
        • Proposition 9: Accept Uncertainty, and Deal with It
        • Proposition 10: Value = Stories + Numbers
      • Conclusion
  • Index

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