Efnisyfirlit

• Cover
• Contents
• Epigraph
• Series Page
• Title Page
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Foreword
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• Part One: Fundamental Uncertainty of a Project Outcome
  • Chapter One: Nature of Project Uncertainties
    • PHASES OF PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND PROJECT OBJECTIVES
    • QUEST FOR PREDICTABILITY OF PROJECT OUTCOME
    • SOURCES AND TYPES OF DEVIATIONS FROM PROJECT OBJECTIVES
    • KEY OBJECTS OF RISK (OR UNCERTAINTY) MANAGEMENT: DO WE REALLY KNOW WHAT WE TRY TO MANAGE?
    • UNCERTAINTY EXPOSURE CHANGERS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Two: Main Components of a Risk Management System
    • RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN
    • ORGANIZATIONAL FRAMEWORK
    • RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
    • RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Three: Adequacy of Methods to Assess Project Uncertainties
    • REVIEW OF DETERMINISTIC QUALITATIVE (SCORING) METHODS
    • REVIEW OF DETERMINISTIC QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    • REVIEW OF PROBABILISTIC QUALITATIVE METHODS
    • REVIEW OF PROBABILISTIC QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
• Part Two: Deterministic Methods
  • Chapter Four: Uncertainty Identification
    • WHEN RISK MANAGEMENT BECOMES BORING
    • THREE DIMENSIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IDENTIFICATION
    • RISK IDENTIFICATION WORKSHOPS
    • SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES AND RISK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE
    • BOWTIE DIAGRAMS FOR UNCERTAINTY IDENTIFICATION
    • THREE-PART UNCERTAINTY NAMING
    • ROLE OF BIAS IN UNCERTAINTY IDENTIFICATION
    • ROOM FOR UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Five: Risk Assessment and Addressing
    • DEVELOPING A RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX
    • USING A RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX FOR ASSESSMENT AS-IS
    • FIVE ADDRESSING STRATEGIES
    • ASSESSMENT AFTER ADDRESSING
    • PROJECT EXECUTION THROUGH RISK ADDRESSING (PETRA)
    • ROLE OF BIAS IN UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Six: Response Implementation and Monitoring
    • MERGING RISK MANAGEMENT WITH TEAM WORK PLANS
    • MONITOR AND APPRAISE
    • WHEN UNCERTAINTIES SHOULD BE CLOSED
    • WHEN SHOULD RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTIES BE ACCEPTED?
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTE
  • Chapter Seven: Risk Management Governance and Organizational Context
    • RISK MANAGEMENT DELIVERABLES FOR DECISION GATES
    • OWNERSHIP OF UNCERTAINTIES AND ADDRESSING ACTIONS
    • MANAGEMENT OF SUPERCRITICAL RISKS
    • RISK REVIEWS AND REPORTING
    • BIAS AND ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Eight: Risk Management Tools
    • THREE DIMENSIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE OF THE UNCERTAINTY REPOSITORY
    • RISK DATABASE SOFTWARE PACKAGES
    • DETAILED DESIGN OF A RISK REGISTER TEMPLATE IN MS EXCEL
    • COMMERCIAL TOOLS FOR PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSES
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Nine: Risk-Based Selection of Engineering Design Options
    • CRITERIA FOR ENGINEERING DESIGN OPTION SELECTION
    • SCORING RISK METHOD FOR ENGINEERING DESIGN OPTION SELECTION
    • DECISION TREE FOR ENGINEERING DESIGN OPTION SELECTION (CONTROLLED OPTIONS)
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTE
  • Chapter Ten: Addressing Uncertainties through Procurement
    • SOURCES OF PROCUREMENT RISKS
    • QUANTITATIVE BID EVALUATION
    • PACKAGE RISK MANAGEMENT POST-AWARD
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Eleven: Cost Escalation Modeling
    • OVERVIEW OF THE COST ESCALATION APPROACH
    • EXAMPLE OF COST ESCALATION MODELING
    • SELECTING THE RIGHT TIME TO PURCHASE
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
• Part Three: Probabilistic Monte Carlo Methods
  • Chapter Twelve: Applications of Monte Carlo Methods in Project Risk Management
    • FEATURES, VALUE, AND POWER OF MONTE CARLO METHODS
    • INTEGRATION OF DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT METHODS
    • UNCERTAINTY OBJECTS INFLUENCING OUTCOME OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSES
    • ORIGIN AND NATURE OF UNCERTAINTIES
    • ROLE OF CORRELATIONS IN COST AND SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSES
    • PROJECT COST RESERVE
    • PROJECT SCHEDULE RESERVE
    • ANATOMY OF INPUT DISTRIBUTIONS
    • PROBABILISTIC BRANCHING
    • MERGE BIAS AS AN ADDITIONAL REASON WHY PROJECTS ARE OFTEN LATE
    • INTEGRATED COST AND SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS
    • INCLUDING UNKNOWN-UNKNOWN ALLOWANCE IN PROBABILISTIC MODELS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Thirteen: Preparations for Probabilistic Analysis
    • TYPICAL WORKFLOWS OF PROBABILISTIC COST AND SCHEDULE ANALYSES
    • PLANNING MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS
    • BASELINES AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROXIES
    • WHY USING PROXIES IS THE RIGHT METHOD
    • MAPPING OF UNCERTAIN EVENTS
    • BUILDING AND RUNNING MONTE CARLO MODELS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Fourteen: Using Outputs of Monte Carlo Analyses in Decision Making
    • ANATOMY OF OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS
    • OVERALL PROJECT UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE LEVELS OF BASELINES
    • PROJECT RESERVE CRITERIA
    • UNCERTAINTY OF COST OUTCOME AND CLASSES OF BASE ESTIMATES
    • COST RESERVE DRAWDOWN
    • SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
    • USING WHAT-IF SCENARIOS FOR ADVANCED SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
    • ARE WE READY FOR CONSTRUCTION, LOGISTICS, OR TURNAROUND WINDOWS?
    • VALIDATING RESULTS AND CLOSING PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
• Part Four: Risk Management Case Study: Project Curiosity
  • Chapter Fifteen: Putting Together the Project Curiosity Case Study
    • SCOPE OF THE CASE STUDY
    • PROJECT CURIOSITY BASELINES
    • PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ADOPTED BY PROJECT CURIOSITY
    • OVERVIEW OF PROJECT UNCERTAINTY EXPOSURE OF PROJECT CURIOSITY
    • TEMPLATES FOR PROBABILISTIC COST AND SCHEDULE ANALYSES
    • BUILDING AND RUNNING PROJECT PROBABILISTIC COST AND SCHEDULE MODELS
    • THREE WHAT-IF SCENARIOS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTES
  • Chapter Sixteen: Decision Making
    • KEY POINTS OF THE PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS REPORT
    • DECISION GATE REVIEW BOARD FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    • CONCLUSION
    • NOTE
  • About the Author
  • Index
• End User License Agreement

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