Efnisyfirlit

• Cover Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Dedication Page
• Contents at a Glance
• Contents
• Acknowledgments
• About the Author
• Preface to the Third Edition
• 1. The Dark Side of Valuation
  • Foundations of Value
    • Intrinsic Valuation
    • Determinants of Value
  • Valuation Across Time
    • Interest Rates
    • Market Risk Premiums
    • The Macro Environment
  • Valuation Across the Life Cycle
    • The Business Life Cycle
    • Early in the Life Cycle: Young Companies
    • The Growth Phase: Growth Companies
    • Maturity (A Mixed Blessing): Mature Firms
    • Winding Down: Dealing with Decline
  • Valuation Across the Business Spectrum
    • Financial Services Firms
    • Cyclical and Commodity Companies
    • Businesses with Intangible Assets
    • Emerging-Market Companies
    • Multibusiness and Global Companies
    • User-, Subscriber-, and Customer-Based Businesses
  • The Dark Side of Valuation Beckons
    • Input Phase
    • Valuation Phase
    • Post-Valuation Phase
  • Conclusion
• Part I: Enlightenment: The Tools
  • 2. Intrinsic Valuation
    • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
      • The Essence of DCF Valuation
      • Equity Versus Firm Valuation
      • Inputs to a DCF Valuation
    • Variations on DCF Valuation
      • Certainty-Adjusted Cash Flow Models
      • Adjusted Present-Value Models
      • Excess-Return Models
    • What Do Intrinsic Valuation Models Tell Us?
    • Conclusion
  • 3. Probabilistic Valuation: Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees, and Simulations
    • Scenario Analysis
      • Best Case/Worst Case
      • Multiple Scenario Analysis
    • Decision Trees
      • Steps in Decision Tree Analysis
      • Estimation Issues
      • Risk-Adjusted Value and Decision Trees
    • Simulations
      • Steps in Simulation
      • Use in Decision Making
      • Simulations with Constraints
      • Issues with Using Simulations
      • Risk-Adjusted Value and Simulations
    • An Overall View of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches
      • Comparing the Approaches
      • A Complement to or Replacement for Risk-Adjusted Value
    • Conclusion
  • 4. Relative Valuation/Pricing
    • What Is Relative Valuation?
    • The Ubiquity of Relative Valuation
    • Reasons for Popularity and Potential Pitfalls
    • Standardized Values and Multiples
      • Earnings Multiples
      • Book Value or Replacement Value Multiples
      • Revenue Multiples
      • Sector-Specific Multiples
    • The Four Basic Steps of Using Multiples
      • Definitional Tests
      • Descriptive Tests
      • Analytical Tests
      • Application Tests
    • Reconciling Relative and Intrinsic Valuations
    • Conclusion
  • 5. Real Options Valuation
    • The Essence of Real Options
    • Real Options, Risk-Adjusted Value, and Probabilistic Assessments
    • Real Options Examples
      • The Option to Delay an Investment
      • The Option to Expand an Investment
      • The Option to Abandon an Investment
    • Caveats for Real Options
    • Conclusion
    • Appendix: Basics of Options and Option Pricing
      • Option Payoffs
      • Determinants of Option Value
      • Option Pricing Models
• Part II: The Dark Side of Macro Inputs
  • 6. A Shaky Base: A “Risky” Risk-Free Rate
    • What Is a Risk-Free Asset?
    • Why Do Risk-Free Rates Matter?
    • Estimating a Risk-Free Rate
      • Requirements for an Investment to Be Risk-Free
      • The Purist Solution
      • A Practical Compromise
      • The Currency Effect
      • Real Versus Nominal Risk-Free Rates
    • Issues in Estimating Risk-Free Rates
      • There Are No Long-Term Traded Government Bonds
      • The Government Is Not Default-Free
      • The Risk-Free Rate Might Change Over Time
    • Closing Thoughts on Risk-Free Rates
    • Conclusion
    • Appendix 6.1
  • 7. Risky Ventures: Assessing the Price of Risk
    • Why Do Risk Premiums Matter?
    • What Are the Determinants of Risk Premiums?
      • Equity Risk Premiums
      • Default Spreads
    • Standard Approaches for Estimating Risk Premiums
      • Equity Risk Premiums
      • Default Spreads
      • Problem Scenarios
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
    • Conclusion
    • Appendix 7.1
  • 8. Macro Matters: The Real Economy
    • Growth in the Real Economy
      • Why Does Real Economic Growth Matter?
      • Looking at History
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
    • Expected Inflation
      • Why Does Expected Inflation Matter?
      • Looking at History
      • U.S. Inflation Rate Across Time
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
    • Exchange Rates
      • Why Do Exchange Rates Matter?
      • Looking at History
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
    • Conclusion
• Part III: The Dark Side across the Life Cycle
  • 9. Baby Steps: Young and Start-Up Companies
    • Young Companies in the Economy
      • A Life Cycle View of Young Companies
      • Characteristics of Young Companies
    • Valuation Issues
      • Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • The Dark Side
    • The Light Side
      • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
      • Real Options
    • Conclusion
  • 10. Shooting Stars: Valuing Growth Companies
    • Growth Companies
      • A Life Cycle View of Growth Companies
    • Characteristics of Growth Companies
    • Valuation Issues
      • Intrinsic Value
    • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • The Light Side of Valuation
      • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • Conclusion
  • 11. The Grown-Ups: Mature Companies
    • Mature Companies in the Economy
      • A Life Cycle View of Mature Companies
      • Characteristics of Mature Companies
    • Valuation Issues
      • Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • Growth in Mature Companies
      • Acquisition Inconsistencies
      • Unreal Restructuring
      • Debt and Value
    • Relative Valuation
    • The Light Side of Valuation
      • Growth and Acquisitions
      • Changing Management
      • The Expected Value of Control
    • Conclusion
  • 12. Winding Down: Declining Companies
    • Declining Companies in the Economy
      • A Life Cycle View of Declining Companies
      • Characteristics of Declining Companies
    • Valuation Issues
      • Intrinsic (DCF) Valuation
      • From Operating Assets to Equity Value per Share
      • Relative Valuation
    • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • Autopilot Optimism
      • Discount Rate Contortions
      • Divestiture Follies
      • Book Capital
      • Dealing with Distress
      • Relative Valuation
    • The Light Side of Valuation
      • A Framework for Dealing with Decline and Distress
      • Irreversible Decline, Low Distress
      • Reversible Decline, Low Distress
      • Distress
    • Conclusion
• Part IV: The Dark Side Across Company Types
  • 13. Ups and Downs: Cyclical and Commodity Companies
    • The Setting
      • Cyclical Companies
      • Commodity Companies
      • Characteristics
    • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • Base Year Fixation
      • The Macro Crystal Ball
      • Macro Point of View (POV) Valuations
      • Selective Normalization
      • False Stability
    • The Light Side of Valuation
      • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
      • The Real Options Argument for Undeveloped Reserves
    • Conclusion
  • 14. Mark to Market: Valuing Financial Services Companies
    • Financial Services Firms: The Big Picture
    • Characteristics of Financial Services Firms
      • The Regulatory Overlay
      • Differences in Accounting Rules
      • Debt and Equity
      • Estimating Cash Flows Is Difficult
    • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • Debt
      • Cash Flow Substitutes
      • Go with the Flow: Dividends
      • Trusting Book Value
      • Regulation and Risk
      • The Light Side of Valuation
      • Discounted Cash Flow Models
      • Asset-Based Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • Conclusion
  • 15. Invisible Investments: Valuing Firms with Intangible Assets
    • Firms with Intangible Assets
      • Intangible Assets in the Overall Economy
      • Characteristics of Firms with Intangible Assets
      • Valuation Consequences
    • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • Intrinsic Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • The Light Side of Valuation
      • Regaining Accounting Consistency
      • Dealing with Equity Options
      • Debt and Cash
      • The Compressed Life Cycle
    • Conclusion
  • 16. Volatility Rules: Emerging-Market Companies
    • The Role of Emerging-Market Companies
      • Emerging-Market Companies in the Global Economy
      • Why Do Emerging Economies Matter?
      • Characteristics of Emerging-Market Companies
    • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • Currency Mismatches
      • Miscounting and Double-Counting Country Risk
      • Risk Parameters
      • Incorporation Effect
      • Ignoring Missing Information
      • Corporate Governance Mood Swings
      • Post-Valuation Discounts
    • The Light Side of Valuation
      • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • Conclusion
  • 17. Going to Pieces: Disaggregated Value
    • Aggregation versus Disaggregation
    • Multinational Conglomerates
      • Role in the Economy
      • Characteristics
      • Valuation Issues
    • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • Intrinsic Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • The Light Side of Valuation
      • Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
      • Relative Valuation
    • User/Subscriber/Customer Companies
      • The Rise of the User
      • Valuation Issues
      • The Dark Side of Valuation
      • The Light Side of Valuation
    • Conclusion
  • 18. The Cynic’s Corner: Value versus Price
    • Value versus Price
    • Investing versus Trading
      • The Value Game versus the Pricing Game
      • Investing versus Trading
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
    • The Right Approach
      • Job Description
      • Cui Bono?
      • How Are You Judged?
      • The Dark Side
      • The Light Side
    • Categorizing Investments
      • Cash Flow–Generating Assets
      • Commodities
      • Currencies
      • Collectibles
    • The Questionable Investments
      • Gold (and Other Precious Metals)
      • Crypto Investments
      • Trophy Assets
    • Conclusion
• Part V: The Finale
  • 19. The Jedi Way: Vanquishing the Dark Side
    • Enlightening Propositions
      • Proposition 1: Be Steadfast on Principles, Open to New Tools, and Flexible on Estimates
      • Proposition 2: Pay Heed to Markets, but Don’t Let Them Determine Your Valuations
      • Proposition 3: Risk Matters
      • Proposition 4: Growth Is Not Free and Is Not Always Value-Adding
      • Proposition 5: All Good Things Come to an End
      • Proposition 6: Watch Out for Truncation Risk
      • Proposition 7: Look at the Past, but Think About the Future
      • Proposition 8: Draw on the Law of Large Numbers
      • Proposition 9: Accept Uncertainty, and Deal with It
      • Proposition 10: Value = Stories + Numbers
    • Conclusion
• Index

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