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Make Up Your Mind: A Decision Making Guide to Thinking Clearly and Choosing Wisely

Vörumerki: John Wiley
Vörunúmer: 9781118784402
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Make Up Your Mind: A Decision Making Guide to Thinking Clearly and Choosing Wisely

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Efnisyfirlit

  • Front Matter
    • Praise for Make Up Your Mind
    • Also by Hal Mooz
    • Epigraph
    • Why this Book?
    • Foreword
    • Background and Acknowledgments
    • Preface
  • PART I Are You Decision Fit?
    • CHAPTER 1 Decision Environment
      • Introduction
      • Decisions Shape Your Future
    • CHAPTER 2 Decision Fundamentals for Thinking Clearly
      • Decision Rigor is Driven by the Fear of a Negative Outcome
      • Intentions, Decisions, and Outcomes
      • Definition of a Good Decision
        • Good and Bad Decisions and Outcomes
      • Decision Making and Sunk Costs
      • Decision Making and the Cost/Price of Indifference
      • Two Decision-Making Stages
      • The Impact of the Decision Outcome
        • Figure 2.1 Two Decision-Making Stages.
        • Decision Maker's Viewpoint
          • Figure 2.2 Adult Decision Maker's Viewpoint.
          • Figure 2.3 Teen Decision Maker's Viewpoint.
        • Decision Fitness
        • Decision Fatigue
    • CHAPTER 3 The Decision Type Frame
      • Crafting the Decision Statement
      • The Decision Context
      • The Power of Framing
        • Figure 3.1 Framing Basics.
      • The Decision Type Frame
        • Figure 3.2 Decision Type Frame Core.
        • Frame Side 1: Possible Bad Outcome
          • Figure 3.3 Possible Bad Outcome.
          • Figure 3.4 Possible Bad Outcome.
        • Frame Side 2: Possible Permanent Outcome
          • Figure 3.5 Possible Bad Outcome.
          • Figure 3.6 Permanent Outcome.
          • Figure 3.7 Permanent Outcome.
          • Figure 3.8 Permanent Outcome.
        • Frame Side 3: Uncertain Information
        • Frame Side 4: Binding Agreement
          • Figure 3.9 Binding Agreement Gestures.
          • Figure 3.10 Breaking a Promise.
      • Decisions and Delegated Authority
      • The Decision Type Frame
        • Figure 3.11 Decision Type Indicators.
        • Figure 3.12 Decision Type Frame.
        • Figure 3.13 Most Difficult Decision.
      • Assessing Decision Outcome Impact
        • The Impact of the Outcome
          • Figure 3.14 Decision Impact Matrix.
          • Figure 3.15 Decision Impact Example.
          • Figure 3.16 Decision Challenge.
          • Figure 3.17 Decision Challenge Example.
          • Figure 3.18 Decision Consensus.
          • Figure 3.19 Decision Consensus Example.
          • Figure 3.20 Permanent/Binding Examples.
          • Figure 3.21 Nonpermanent Parenting.
          • Figure 3.22 Unintended Consequences.
          • Figure 3.23 More Unintended Consequences.
          • Figure 3.24 Decision Type Frame Impact.
          • Figure 3.25 Decision Maker and Decision Type Frame.
      • The Decision Maker and the Decision Type Frame
    • CHAPTER 4 The Bases for Judgment
      • Decision Action
      • Instinct-Based Judgment
        • Figure 4.1 Decision Judgment Model.
        • Decision Judgment Bases
      • 1. Indifference-Based Judgment
      • 2. Addiction-Based Judgment
      • 3. Faith-Based Judgment
        • Figure 4.2 Deadly Faith-Based Example.
      • 4. Emotion-Based Judgment
      • 5. Intuition-Based Judgment
        • Figure 4.3 The Range of Intuition.
      • Intuition Comes in Many Forms
        • Figure 4.4 Dilbert Gets It Right!
        • Figure 4.5 Intuition Exercise.
      • 6. Pressure-Based Judgment—Power/Peer/Perk
      • 7. Doctrine-Based Judgment
      • 8. Expert-Based Judgment
      • 9. Fact-Based Judgment
      • 10. Probability-Based Judgment
      • Which Judgment Process is Most Suitable?
        • Defensible and Nondefensible Judgments
          • Figure 4.6 Defensible Judgment Bases.
          • Figure 4.7 Intuition Properly Applied.
          • Figure 4.8 Examples of Typical Judgments.
        • Trust but Verify
    • CHAPTER 5 The Decision Solution Frame
      • The Decision Solution Frame Introduction
        • Figure 5.1 Decision Type Frame.
      • Decision Solution Frame Categories
        • Scope and Limits
          • Figure 5.2 Decision Solution Frame.
        • Legal
        • Ethics
        • Addictions
        • Experience
        • Personalities
          • Figure 5.3 Wilson Personality Model.
          • Figure 5.4 Wilson Personality Model—Detailed.
        • Value
      • Opportunities and their Risks
      • The Impact of Uncertainty
      • Developing Alternatives and Related Information (Facts and Probabilities)
  • PART II Deciding
    • CHAPTER 6 Process-Assisted Judgment
      • What Type of Decision is It?
      • Alternative Judgment Methods
        • Figure 6.1 Decision Judgment Model.
      • Process-Based Judgments
        • Figure 6.2 Defensible Judgments Road Map.
        • Figure 6.3 Lack of Due Diligence Example.
    • CHAPTER 7 Fact-Based Judgment
      • Fact-Based Judgment, aka Low Uncertainty Judgments
      • Rank Sums Judgment Process
        • Figure 7.1 Fact-Based Road Map.
        • Figure 7.2 Rank Sums Process.
        • Figure 7.3 Rank Sums Ranking Table Example.
        • Figure 7.4 Rank Sums—Small Sedan Criteria Ranking.
      • Dominance Analysis Judgment Process
        • Figure 7.5 Dominance Analysis Process.
        • Figure 7.6 Dominance Compliance Table—Eliminate dominated alternatives.
        • Figure 7.7 Dominance Compliance Table—Eliminate dominated alternatives.
        • Figure 7.8 Dominance Compliance Table—Eliminate criteria with near equal responses.
        • Figure 7.9 Dominance Compliance Table—Eliminate criteria pairs approximately equivalent.
        • Figure 7.10 Dominance Compliance Table—Car Example.
        • Figure 7.11 Dominance Compliance Table—Eliminate criteria with near equal compliance.
        • Figure 7.12 Dominance Compliance Table—Eliminate dominated alternatives.
        • Figure 7.13 Dominance Compliance Table—Eliminate near equal criteria pairs.
        • Figure 7.14 Dominance Compliance Table—Judge based on value.
      • Pugh's Judgment Process
        • Figure 7.15 Pugh's Process.
        • Figure 7.16 Pugh's Compliance Table—Judge based on weighted minus and plus sums.
        • Figure 7.17 Pugh's Compliance Table Car Example—Judge based on weighted minus and plus sums.
      • Kepner-Tregoe Derived Judgment Process (KT)
        • Figure 7.18 Kepner-Tregoe Derived Process.
        • Figure 7.19 KT Derived Process.
        • Figure 7.20 Sensitivity Analysis Example.
        • Figure 7.21 KT Derived Process Table.
        • Figure 7.22 KT Derived Process Example.
        • Figure 7.23 KT Derived Process Example—Normalized.
        • Figure 7.24 Other Factors Analysis—Example.
        • Figure 7.25 KT Derived Process—Car Example.
      • Value Curves
        • Figure 7.26 Criteria Scoring Curve—Car Acceleration Example.
        • Figure 7.27 Criteria Scoring Curve—Car Reliability Example.
        • Figure 7.28 Scoring Criteria by Using Value Curves.
        • Figure 7.29 Acceleration and Reliability Scored Using Value Curves.
      • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
        • Figure 7.30 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).
        • Figure 7.31 Analytical Hierarchy Process—AHP—Flow Chart.
        • Figure 7.32 Numerical Ratings for Relative Criteria Importance.
        • Figure 7.33 Pairwise Criteria Rating Example.
        • Figure 7.34 Pairwise Comparison Numerical Ratios.
        • Figure 7.35 Criteria Weight Calculation Based on Pairwise Ratio.
        • Figure 7.36 Criteria Score Calculation Based on Pairwise Ratio.
        • Sensitivity Analysis
          • Figure 7.37 Criteria Weight.
      • Criteria Hierarchy
        • Figure 7.38 Criteria Hierarchy Example.
      • Fact-Based Decision Analysis Software
    • CHAPTER 8 Probability-Based Judgment
      • Decisions in Uncertainty
        • Figure 8.1 Probability Based Judgments.
      • Predictable Probability Decisions
      • Decision Tree Analysis
        • Figure 8.2 Decision Tree Nomenclature.
        • Figure 8.3 Decision Tree Travel Example.
        • Figure 8.4 Decision Tree Eye Operation Example.
        • Figure 8.5 Decision Tree Eye Operation Example.
        • Figure 8.6 Decision Tree—Car Insurance Example.
      • Techniques for Reducing Uncertainties
      • Judgments of High Uncertainty
        • Judgments of Variable High Uncertainty
          • Figure 8.7 Frequentist and Bayesian Comparison.
    • CHAPTER 9 Group Decision Making
    • CHAPTER 10 Summary
  • Back Matter
    • Bibliography
    • Index

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Vörumerki: John Wiley
Vörunúmer: 9781118784402
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