Efnisyfirlit

• Cover
• Title
• Contents
• Preface
• Part One Stocks and Their Value
  • 1. Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air
    • What Is a Random Walk?
    • Investing as a Way of Life Today
    • Investing in Theory
    • The Firm-Foundation Theory
    • The Castle-in-the-Air Theory
    • How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted
  • 2. The Madness of Crowds
    • The Tulip-Bulb Craze
    • The South Sea Bubble
    • Wall Street Lays an Egg
    • An Afterword
  • 3. Speculative Bubbles from the Sixties into the Nineties
    • The Sanity of Institutions
    • The Soaring Sixties
      • The New “New Era”: The Growth-Stock/New-Issue Craze
      • Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom
      • Performance Comes to the Market: The Bubble in Concept Stocks
    • The Nifty Fifty
    • The Roaring Eighties
      • The Return of New Issues
      • ZZZZ Best Bubble of All
    • What Does It All Mean?
      • The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks
  • 4. The Explosive Bubbles of the Early 2000s
    • The Internet Bubble
      • A Broad-Scale High-Tech Bubble
      • Yet Another New-Issue Craze
      • TheGlobe.com
      • Security Analysts $peak Up
      • New Valuation Metrics
      • The Writes of the Media
      • Fraud Slithers In and Strangles the Market
      • Should We Have Known the Dangers?
    • The U.S. Housing Bubble and Crash of the Early 2000s
      • The New System of Banking
      • Looser Lending Standards
      • The Housing Bubble
    • Bubbles and Economic Activity
      • Does This Mean That Markets Are Inefficient?
    • The Bubble in Cryptocurrencies
      • Bitcoin and Blockchain
    • Is Bitcoin Real Money?
    • Should the Bitcoin Phenomenon Be Called a Bubble?
    • What Can Make the Bitcoin Bubble Deflate?
• Part Two How The Pros Play the Biggest Game in Town
  • 5. Technical and Fundamental Analysis
    • Technical versus Fundamental Analysis
    • What Can Charts Tell You?
    • The Rationale for the Charting Method
    • Why Might Charting Fail to Work?
    • From Chartist to Technician
    • The Technique of Fundamental Analysis
    • Three Important Caveats
    • Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work?
    • Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together
  • 6. Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk Theory
    • Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts
    • Is There Momentum in the Stock Market?
    • Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk?
    • Some More Elaborate Technical Systems
      • The Filter System
      • The Dow Theory
      • The Relative-Strength System
      • Price-Volume Systems
      • Reading Chart Patterns
      • Randomness Is Hard to Accept
    • A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money
      • The Hemline Indicator
      • The Super Bowl Indicator
      • The Odd-Lot Theory
      • Dogs of the Dow
      • January Effect
      • A Few More Systems
      • Technical Market Gurus
    • Appraising the Counterattack
    • Implications for Investors
  • 7. How Good is Fundamental Analysis? The Efficient-Market Hypothesis
    • The Views from Wall Street and Academia
    • Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant?
    • Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded
      • 1. The Influence of Random Events
      • 2. The Production of Dubious Reported Earnings through “Creative” Accounting Procedures
      • 3. Errors Made by the Analysts Themselves
      • 4. The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk, to Portfolio Management, or to Hedge Funds
      • 5. The Conflicts of Interest between Research and Investment Banking Departments
    • Do Security Analysts Pick Winners? The Performance of the Mutual Funds
    • The Semi-Strong and Strong Forms of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH)
• Part Three The New Investment Technology
  • 8. A New Walking Shoe: Modern Portfolio Theory
    • The Role of Risk
    • Defining Risk: The Dispersion of Returns
      • Illustration: Expected Return and Variance Measures of Reward and Risk
    • Documenting Risk: A Long-Run Study
    • Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
    • Diversification in Practice
  • 9. Reaping Reward By Increasing Risk
    • Beta and Systematic Risk
    • The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
    • Let’s Look at the Record
    • An Appraisal of the Evidence
    • The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk: Arbitrage Pricing Theory
    • The Fama-French Three-Factor Model
    • A Summing Up
  • 10. Behavioral Finance
    • The Irrational Behavior of Individual Investors
      • Overconfidence
      • Biased Judgments
      • Herding
      • Loss Aversion
      • Pride and Regret
    • Behavioral Finance and Savings
    • The Limits to Arbitrage
    • What Are the Lessons for Investors from Behavioral Finance?
      • 1. Avoid Herd Behavior
      • 2. Avoid Overtrading
      • 3. If You Do Trade: Sell Losers, Not Winners
      • 4. Other Stupid Investor Tricks
    • Does Behavioral Finance Teach Ways to Beat the Market?
  • 11. New Methods of Portfolio Construction: Smart Beta and Risk Parity
    • What is “Smart Beta”?
    • Four Tasty Flavors: Their Pros and Cons
      • 1. Value Wins
      • 2. Smaller Is Better
      • 3. There is Some Momentum in the Stock Market
      • 4. Low-Beta Stocks Return as Much as High-Beta Stocks
      • What Could Go Wrong?
      • Blended Factor Strategies
    • Blended Funds in Practice
      • Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA)
      • Research Affiliates Fundamental Index™ (RAFI)
      • Goldman Sachs Active Beta ETF
      • Equally-Weighted Portfolios
    • Implications for Investors
    • Risk Parity
      • The Risk-Parity Technique
      • Safe Bonds May Also Provide Opportunities to Employ Risk-Parity Techniques
      • Risk Parity versus the Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
      • Dalio’s All Weather Fund
      • What Could Go Wrong?
    • Concluding Comments
• Part Four A Practical Guide for Random Walkers and Other Investors
  • 12. A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers and Other Investors
    • Exercise 1: Gather the Necessary Supplies
    • Exercise 2: Don’t Be Caught Empty-Handed: Cover Yourself with Cash Reserves and Insurance
      • Cash Reserves
      • Insurance
      • Deferred Variable Annuities
    • Exercise 3: Be Competitive—Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation
      • Money-Market Mutual Funds (Money Funds)
      • Bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
      • Internet Banks
      • Treasury Bills
      • Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds
    • Exercise 4: Learn How to Dodge the Tax Collector
      • Individual Retirement Accounts
      • Roth IRAs
      • Pension Plans
      • Saving for College: As Easy as 529
    • Exercise 5: Make Sure the Shoe Fits: Understand Your Investment Objectives
    • Exercise 6: Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home—Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles
    • Exercise 7: How to Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country
      • Zero-Coupon Bonds Can Be Useful to Fund Future Liabilities
      • No-Load Bond Funds Can Be Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors
      • Tax-Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket Investors
      • Hot TIPS: Inflation-Protected Bonds
      • Should You Be a Bond-Market Junkie?
      • Foreign Bonds
    • Exercise 7A: Use Bond Substitutes for Part of the Aggregate Bond Portfolio during Eras of Financial Repression
    • Exercise 8: Tiptoe through the Fields of Gold, Collectibles, and Other Investments
    • Exercise 9: Remember That Investment Costs Are Not Random; Some Are Lower Than Others
    • Exercise 10: Avoid Sinkholes and Stumbling Blocks: Diversify Your Investment Steps
    • A Final Checkup
  • 13. Handicapping The Financial Race: A Primer in Understanding and Projecting Returns from Stocks and Bonds
    • What Determines the Returns from Stocks and Bonds?
    • Four Historical Eras of Financial Market Returns
      • Era I: The Age of Comfort
      • Era II: The Age of Angst
      • Era III: The Age of Exuberance
      • Era IV: The Age of Disenchantment
    • The Markets from 2009 to 2018
    • Handicapping Future Returns
  • 14. A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing
    • Five Asset-Allocation Principles
      • 1. Risk and Reward Are Related
      • 2. Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the Length of Time You Hold Your Investment
      • 3. Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and Bonds
      • 4. Rebalancing Can Reduce Investment Risk and Possibly Increase Returns
      • 5. Distinguishing between Your Attitude toward and Your Capacity for Risk
    • Three Guidelines to Tailoring a Life-Cycle Investment Plan
      • 1. Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets
      • 2. Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk
      • 3. Persistent Saving in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off
    • The Life-Cycle Investment Guide
    • Life-Cycle Funds
    • Investment Management Once You Have Retired
      • Inadequate Preparation for Retirement
    • Investing a Retirement Nest Egg
      • Annuities
    • The Do-It-Yourself Method
  • 15. Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street
    • The No-Brainer Step: Investing in Index Funds
      • The Index-Fund Solution: A Summary
      • A Broader Definition of Indexing
      • A Specific Index-Fund Portfolio
      • ETFs and Taxes
    • The Do-It-Yourself Step: Potentially Useful Stock-Picking Rules
      • Rule 1: Confine stock purchases to companies that appear able to sustain above-average earnings growth for at least five years
      • Rule 2: Never pay more for a stock than can reasonably be justified by a firm foundation of value
      • Rule 3: It helps to buy stocks with the kinds of stories of anticipated growth on which investors can build castles in the air
      • Rule 4: Trade as little as possible
    • The Substitute-Player Step: Hiring a Professional Wall Street Walker
    • Investment Advisers, Standard and Automated
    • Some Last Reflections on Our Walk
    • A Final Example
    •      Epilogue
• A Random Walker’s Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds and ETFs
• Acknowledgments
• Index
• Copyright

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